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Archive for the 'Georgia Mountain Market reVIEWS' Category
Fewer homes went under contract in January as the housing market continues to limp through the winter months.
According to the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index fell to its lowest level in 3 quarters this January. By contrast, in October 2009, the index had touched a 3-year high.
The Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of homes that have gone under contract to sell, but have yet to close nationwide. It’s compiled using data from more than 100 regional listing services and 60-plus brokerages — the sample set encompasses 20 percent of all home resales in a given month.
Economists have come to rely on the Pending Home Sales Index because of its high correlation to actual home sales. 80% of all home marked “pending” close within 60 days. Many of the rest close within 120.
Therefore, when we see Pending Home Sales show weakness like it did in January, we can infer that home resales will remain weak through the spring.
But will they really?
- Fewer sales should drag down home prices, bringing more buyers into the market
- Mortgage rates are still very low, but are poised to rise in just a few weeks
- The home buyer tax credit requires buyers to be in contract by April 30, 2010
In other words, there’s a confluence of factors that could lead to a rush of sales in Blue Ridge and Blairsville and around the North Georgia Mountains over the next two months, reversing the housing market’s recent momentum.
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As you can imagine, 2009 presented many obstacles for those of us in the Real Estate and Mortgage Industry. It was a tough and challenging year no doubt, but presented some hope for the future. Although 2010 has not started with record breaking numbers, many are still predicting that this could be the year we finally see “The Bottom.”
My broker Robert Rogers, really does a great job leading our agents and guiding us to success. He is a numbers guy, and he stays on top of the market and keeps all of us at Blairsville Realty informed as to exactly what is going on in the Real Estate Market in the Blairsville, GA., and all of the North Georgia Mountains.
I too wanted to congratulate my associates at Blairsville Realty for being #1 in number of units SOLD in all of the Northeast Georgia Board of Realtors(R) MLS, and #1 in number of units SOLD and Sales Volume in Union County. I am very fortunate and proud to work with such a great group of professionals, but more importantly friends that I consider to be family.
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The Pending Home Sales Index rose slightly in December, climbing 1 percent from November.
A Pending Home Sale is a home that is under contract to sell, but not yet sold. It’s a figure compiled by the National Association of Realtors® using sales data from over 100 regional listing services and more than 60 large brokerages around the country.
Because each pending sale is a true measure of sales activity, the Pending Home Sales Index is purported to be the most reliable forward-looking indicator for housing.
Recent data supports this hypothesis.
After Pending Home Sales plunged 16 percent in November, Existing Home Sales fell by 17 percent in December. Based on the most recent Pending Sales Index, therefore, we can expect January’s closed sales to be similarly level.
For home buyers in Blairsville , Blue Ridge and Hiawassee Georgia this is all a bit of good news. Home prices are based on the supply-and-demand balance that exists between buyers and sellers. When buyers outnumber sellers, like they did through most of 2009, home supplies dip and, in fact, the national home inventory nearly halved during the 12 months ending November 2009.
With fewer homes for sale, multiple-offer situations were almost commonplace and home values rose as result.
Activity has since slowed, however, and fewer buyers are in today’s market. The supply-and-demand equation has shifted back some. In December, home supplies rose for the first time in 7 months and January will likely show the same.
The net result: Home buyers have more homes from which to choose and that can create negotiation leverage for better prices and better concessions.
With mortgage rates still low and a looming deadline on the home buyer’s tax credit, market activity should be strong between now and April. Take your time and bid right. And when you’re ready, be ready. The best deals likely won’t last.
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Like real estate, it appears that foreclosure activity is a local phenomenon, too.
As reported by RealtyTrac.com, more than half of all foreclosure-related activity in 2009 came from just 4 states:
1. California
2. Florida
3. Arizona
4. Illinois
More than 1.4 million filings made in 2009 are attributed to the above states. Furthermore, each ranks in the Top 10 for 2009 Foreclosures Per Capita.
The other states are Nevada, Utah, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan and Colorado.
Versus 2008, foreclosures are up 21 percent nationwide and that’s a big number, but a deeper look at RealtyTrac’s annual reports reveals a more positive undertone on the housing market.
1. 40 states fell below the national Foreclosures Per Capita average in 2009
2. Foreclosure activity fell on an annual basis in 10 states as compared to 2008
Foreclosures are still prevalent, though, and buying homes in foreclosure in Blairsville, Blue Ridge, and Ellijay Georgia continues to be big business. First-time buyers, move-up buyers, and real estate investors each are bidding aggressively.
Distressed homes account for one-third of home resale activity, according to an industry trade group.
That said, buying foreclosures can be tricky.
First, properties are often sold “as-is” and the cost of repairs may unwind the home’s status as a “value buy”. Furthermore, a lender may require specific fixes to be made prior to closing and that, too, costs money.
Second, buying a foreclosed home in Georgia isn’t as streamlined as buying a “normal” home. Closing on a foreclosure can be a 120-day process or longer. A 4-month time-frame may not fit your schedule.
And, third, finding foreclosures can be difficult. Despite the growth in foreclosure search engines, it still takes a good real estate agent to uncover the best homes at the best prices.
Read the complete foreclosure report and take a peek at RealtyTrac’s foreclosure heat maps. If you like what you see, Contact Me or give me a call at 706.994.8686.
There’s still good deals in the foreclosure market — you just have to know where to find them
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Just one month after touching a 3-year high, the National Association of Realtors® Pending Home Sales index plunged in November. A “pending” home sale is a home that is under contract to sell, but has yet to close.
The 16 percent drop marks the first retreat in Pending Home Sales since January of last year.
The weak Pending Home Sales data is an indication that Existing Home Sales data will be soft this month. This is because, historically, 80 percent of Pending Home Sales convert to “closed sales” within 60 days, and most of the rest close within 120.
With Pending Home Sales down, the housing market should lose some of its momentum. For today’s home buyers, this kind of slack can represent a terrific opportunity.
Home prices are a function of supply and demand; of buyers and sellers. When buyers outnumber sellers, competition leads to bidding wars, ultimately, and higher home prices overall. The imbalance can also create a sense of urgency that results in over-paying for a home.
When buyers are sparse, on the other hand, the psychology of real estate shifts.
Home sellers are keenly aware of foot traffic and requests for second and third showings. Without buyers, their homes can’t sell. They also note a lack of general feedback from the market.
It’s at this point that seller fear can creep in and it becomes a buyer’s best time to buy.
Based on November’s Pending Home Sales data, it’s clear that home sellers are in abundance right now. Home buyers have leverage.
It may not last.
With mortgage rates easing lower this week, the federal home buyer tax credit still in effect, and the Holiday Season officially over, buyers are getting back to business in Blairsville and everywhere.
Plus, with the tax credit deadline of April 30, 2010 fast approaching, buyer activity should increase over the next 4-6 weeks.
The market looks ripe for a buy but don’t rush it. Take your time and bid right. But when you’re ready, be ready — once the market momentum shifts back to sellers, you might lose all that leverage you built up through the winter.
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2010 is just a few days old and already the “experts” are making predictions for the year.
Housing calls and mortgage rate predictions run the gamut:
- Home prices will fall in 2010
- Home prices will rise in 2010
- Mortgage rates will rise in 2010
- Mortgage rates will rise by a lot in 2010
Given how varied their outlooks, it’s clear that the professionals have no better view of the future than the amateurs. An expert can make an educated guess, but it’s a guess nonetheless.
Last year, Wall Streeters predicted a 25% pullback in home prices. 12 months later, we know prices didn’t fall. Wall Street also predicted higher mortgage rates for 2009. That prediction was fulfilled.
There’s a lot of talk on CNBC and elsewhere about what’s coming in 2010. Before you take those predictions to the bank, just remember that analysts do a much better job interpreting data from the past than projecting it into the future.
The only thing that’s certain right now is that mortgage rates are historically low, the government is giving tax credits to qualified buyers, and there’s a lot of good “deals” in housing. Make the most of what’s out there today because it will take 12 months for us to look back and know which predictions were right and which were wrong.
Until then, predictions are just opinions and guesses.
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I hope that you enjoy this Fall Newsletter from Blairsville Realty. Robert Rogers, Broker and Owner of Blairsville Realty stays on top of the Real Estate Market here in Union County. He decided that it would be a great idea to keep not only the customers and clients of Blairsville Realty, but all Buyers, Sellers and anyone that is interested in what is exactly going on in our local market.
Please take a few minutes and look over our latest newsletter. It is packed with a lot of great information and I know that you will find it very informative. Should you have any questions or concerns after reading our Report, please feel free to Contact Me, or simply pick up the phone and call me at 706.994.8686. As always, thanks so much for visiting me on “The Porch” today. Please come back and visit often.
Make it a GREAT day!
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Much like the Fannin County Residential Market Report, we have some positive news as well as some not so good news. I would like to begin with the not so good news and end this post on a positive note. Seller’s are continuing to be plagued with the Foreclosure and Short Sale Markets. The median Sold Price for Union County is down 25%. That is a change of almost $50,000 from October of 2008. Our average days on market for the Homes For Sale In Blairsville, GA. is up 35%. Since August of this year, we have seen a decrease each month in the number of days on market which is again mostly due in part to the number of Foreclosures and the aggressive pricing that the Banks are placing on their REO’s.
That’s all for the negative, isn’t that nice? Now for some good news. The number of Homes Sold in Blairsville Georgia continues to climb. Union County home sales are up 18%, which sounds a lot better than if I were to say 4 more than October of 2008. It is still positive news any way you slice it. The Residential Inventory in Union County is decreasing each month, down 15% or 137 fewer Homes For Sale this October. The number of Homes that are Under Contract or that have gone Pending is also up 7%, a change of 2 from last October. With new construction still very slow, our number of new properties listed are way down, 37% which is 40 less new listings than we had a year ago. This may not sound like good news, but I actually believe it is. We have a lot of old inventory that we desperately need to get rid of so that more and more new construction can begin again. Finally, our Absorption Rate is down 17%. This tells us the number of months that it would take to sell all the Residential Inventory that we currently have at current market conditions. Right now that number is 23 months.
Thanks so much for coming up on “The Porch” for another North Georgia Mountain Market Report. I really appreciate it and hope that you do come back again real soon. If you know of someone looking to Buy or Sell North Georgia Mountain Real Estate, I would be grateful if you would pass along to them My Contact information. Even better, forward them this post or a link to The Front Porch View.
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Well there is some Good and Bad news for the 3rd Quarter Residential Sales in the Fannin County Real Estate Market. Some Good News, the number of Homes Sold in and around Blue Ridge are up 26% from September a year ago according to the sales data from our Northeast Georgia MLS. Also the number of Homes that have gone Under Contract year over year is up a whopping 62%, a change of 15 more Homes. Another bit of Good News is that our inventory is slowly coming down as well. We have experienced an 11% decrease in the number of Homes For Sale in Blue Ridge, GA. to only 995 on the market compared to 1,118 in September 2008.
Now for the Bad News which actually isn’t all that bad. We continue to fight against the Banks and the troubles that they are causing as well. Home values continue to be driven down mostly due in part to the Short Sales and Foreclosures. I have mixed emotions about that actually. Some of our local Banks are really working hard to involve the local Realtors, while yet others seem to want to do it all on their own. Either way, they didn’t ask to be in this Real Estate Crisis either. Yes we all know they issued a lot of Bad Loans, but if we all would have had a Crystal Ball, I am sure most of us, if not all of us, would be in a different situation. The Median Sales Price of Fannin County Residential Homes is down 15%. That price is $208,000, which is much higher than the neighboring counties such as Union County and Gilmer County. The Average Days on Market is also up 31% to 132 days. This is the average number of days that a Home is on the market before it actually sells. I firmly believe that Pricing is 80% of Marketing these days, and if you are not priced right, and I mean aggressively against the competition, you are likely to see your Days on Market to be even higher than that.
Below you will find detailed Graphs and Charts gathered through our Northeast Georgia MLS. Feel free to Call Me at 706.633.8186 or Contact Me if you have any questions or concerns about anything I have said in this Market Report. If I can assist you with any of your North Georgia Mountain Real Estate needs, I would be grateful for the opportunity to speak with you about that.
Thanks so much for visiting me on “The Porch,” and I hope you come back and visit me again real soon.
Make it a GREAT day!
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