According to the Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Index, home values rose 5 percent in June versus the month prior, and 4 percent from a year earlier.  It’s the 16th consecutive month in which Case-Shiller reported an increase in home values and the third straight month of outstanding results.

That said, homeowners and Home Buyers in Blairsville and Blue Ridge would do well to temper Case-Shiller enthusiasm. The June figures are issued on 60-day delay and, over the last 60 days, housing data has been lackluster at best.

• Existing Home Sales are down 27 percent
• New Home Sales are down 12 percent
• Homebuilder confidence is down

Stories like these highlight a key weakness of the Case-Shiller Index — it’s out of date as soon as it’s published. Because of this, the Case-Shiller Index relevance to everyday Americans is muted. People don’t buy homes in the “60 days ago” real estate market, after all.

June is ancient real estate history to buyers and sellers in the North Georgia Mountains.

However, the Case-Shiller Index does have its place. As the most widely-followed, private-sector housing tracker, the index is used to help make policy decisions and to shape Wall Street’s expectations of the economy. This means that a strong Case-Shiller reading can cause mortgage rates to rise, and a weak Case-Shiller reading can cause rates to fall.

Tuesday, mortgage rates fell.

One day after the National Association of Realtors® released the softest Existing Home Sales report since 1995, the U.S. Census Bureau released a similarly-weak New Home Sales report.

Americans bought just 276,000 newly-built homes in July. That marks the fewest units sold since the government started keeping records in 1963.

In addition, although new home inventory actually dropped 2,000 units in July, the slowing sales pace still managed to push the national supply higher by 1.1 months.  At July’s rate of sales, the nation’s new home inventory would be exhausted in just about 9 months.

None of this news should surprise you, though. It’s all been foreshadowed for weeks.

First, Single-Family Housing Starts have dropped in every month since April.  A “housing start” is a when a home starts construction and, because fewer homes are under construction, we should expect fewer homes to be sold.

Second, Building Permits are down.  The number of new permits peaked in March and have fallen 23 percent since.

And, lastly, home builder confidence ranks at its lowest levels since early-2009. A contributing factor in that pessimism is dwindling buyer foot traffic.

Regardless, there’s two sides to the story. Although the New Home Sales data looks bad for builders, it can be terrific  for you. This is because new homes are more likely to be discounted when the sales cycle favors buyers.

Coupled with ultra-low mortgage rates, the cost of buying a newly-built home in Hiawassee may have just become cheaper.

Where’s The Bottom?

According the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, home values are now off just 12.5 percent from their April 2007 peak nationwide.  This, after a half-percent monthly increase in prices in May, on average.

Given the state of the market since April 2007, the Home Price Index results are a positive for both the housing market and the economy, but we have to remember that May’s half-point increase is an average, and not specific to a particular area.

In contrast to “national markets”, the real estate markets in which you and I live are decidedly local.  It’s a major difference and the distinction renders the Home Price Index somewhat less important.

After all, the HPI doesn’t account for housing activity in individual neighborhoods like the  Aska Adventure Area , nor does it track value across cities like Blue Ridge. Instead, it summarizes data in giant chunks of geography.

A quick look at the HPI regional data proves the point. Of the HPI’s 9 tracked regions, only one was within one-tenth of one percent of the national, half-point average.  The others varied by as much 1.3 percent.

As a sample:

• Mountain Region : + 1.7 percent
• New England : + 0.2 percent
• South Atlantic : +1.0 percent

And this is on a regional basis. The HPI’s applicability to state, city and neighborhood markets is even less appropriate.

Real estate values cannot be captured in a national survey. For home buyers and seller, what matters is the economics of a block, on a street, in a neighborhood.  That type of granularity can’t be tracked in a report like the Home Price Index.

The best place to get that data is from a local real estate agent that knows the market well. That is why I have attached a Market Report that includes Residential Sales for Fannin, Gilmer, Towns and Union Counties covering the past 3 years.

After a down month in May, the sales of newly-built homes appears back on track.

As published by the Census Bureau, June’s New Home Sales report showed:

1. A 24 percent sales volume increase from the month prior
2. A 2-month drop in the supply of newly-built home

There are now just 210,000 new homes for sale nationwide.

June’s data is a major improvement over May, but it’s possible that the true “new home market” may be softer than the statistics suggest.  This is for several reasons.

First, we’re comparing June’s sales data to the worst month in New Home Sales history.

In May, sales of new homes totaled just 267,000 units nationwide. That’s one-quarter fewer sales than in the previous worst month in New Home Sales history. May’s sales levels were awful by any measure but June’s improvement to 330,000 units remains second-worst sales levels ever posted.

Second, although much improved, June’s new home supply of 7.6 months is elevated versus the historical norm near 6.0 months.  The last year has averaged 7.7 months.

For buyers of new homes in Blairsville and Blue Ridge, this combination of low sales volume and higher-than-normal inventory may be a positive.  It’s the main reason why home builder confidence is reeling and the downturn has opened some doors for big discounts and deals. Free upgrades and closing cost credits can make a well-priced home even more attractive.

Data compiled through the Northeast Georgia MLS shows the following:

New Homes For Sale In The North Georgia Mountains

• Towns County (Hiawassee, GA.) – 37
• Union County  (Blairsville, GA.) – 50
• Fannin County (Blue Ridge, GA.) – 98
• Gilmer County (Ellijay, GA.)  – 56

New Homes Sold Year-To-Date In The North Georgia Mountains

• Towns County (Hiawassee, GA.) – 11
• Union County (Blairsville, GA.) – 23
• Fannin County (Blue Ridge, GA.) – 28
• Gilmer County (Ellijay, GA.) – 18

Plus, with mortgage rates at all-time lows and expected to rise, home affordability is may never be better.

If I can assist you with your North Georgia Mountain Real Estate needs, please Contact Me, or pick up the phone and give me a call at 706.994.8686. I sure would appreciate the opportunity to help you find your piece of Heaven here in our Mountains!

Single-family housing starts plummeted to a one-year low in May, just 30 days after soaring to a 20-month high.  It’s no wonder home builders are confused.

Against a revised April figure, Housing Starts fell 97,000 units in May, a figure representing almost one-fifth of the total market size.

It’s the worst showing for Housing Starts since May 2009, a surprise to builders and economists alike.

Furthermore, single-family Building Permits plunged in May, too — down 10 percent from April. A permit is a certification from local government that authorizes home construction.

Housing permits are a precursor to Housing Starts with 82% of homes starting construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. Fewer permits, therefore, directly reduces the number of new homes coming to market in the coming months.

For home buyers in Blairsville and Blue Ridge, this should create a sense of urgency.

Home prices are based on supply and demand and supply appears to be falling about the same time that economists predict a surge in home demand.  It could spell rising home prices and a complete loss of negotiation power with home sellers.

For now, though, home affordability remains high with properties cheap and mortgage rates near all-time lows. If you plan to buy a home later this year, the May 2010 Housing Starts data may be a reason to move up your time frame a bit.

Median Sales Prices for Homes Sold in Blairsville was down 23% from April 2009, and it was also down 9% from March of this year. The Median Price of Homes For Sale in Blairsville, GA. is also down 5% , from $209,000 to $199,000.

Sales were down in April from 31 in March, to only 18 in April. That is a change of 42%. Of those 18 Homes Sold in Blairsville, 39% of them were Foreclosures.  There were 21 Homes Sold in Union County in April 2009. Our Northeast Georgia MLS system is not set-up to accurately report the number of Short Sales that occurred within those sales.

There is Good News for May however. The number of Pending Sales in Union County was up 45% in April. These are properties that are currently under contract but have not closed. Typically, these properties close between 30 – 45 days. Looking back on Pending Sales in March, there were also 32 Homes Under Contract in Blairsville as in April. That means that either half of those deals fell through, or it is indeed taking a little longer with the New Changes to the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA) to close the transaction.

The number of New Properties For Sale in Blairsville climbed a little in March, but fell again in April. Overall, our inventory is slowly coming down bringing back into align the law of economics…Supply and Demand. We have gone from 860 Homes for Sale in Blairsville in April of 2009, to 711 available on the market in April of 2010. That is a change of 17% year over year.

The Average Days on Market (DOM) spiked 51% in the month of April to 170 days, up from 112. However with inventory coming down, and sales holding somewhat with a very slow and steady climb, our Absorption Rate is coming down. Our Month Supply of Inventory (MSI) is down 44%.

Should you have any questions or concerns with anything that you see in this report, please Contact Me. You may also call me at 706.994.8686, I will be more than happy to answer any question or concern that you may have. If I can assist you or anyone you may know that is looking to purchase a Home For Sale in Blairsville, GA., or anywhere here in the North Georgia Mountains, I would be grateful for the opportunity.

Earlier this week, Standard & Poors released its February Case-Shiller Index, a home price tracker for select metropolitan areas.

Overwhelmingly, home values fell in the 20 markets tracked by the Case-Shiller. Only San Diego showed a modest increase.  The other 19 markets averaged a 1.23 percent decline between January and February.

However, that’s not the story you read in the most papers. Instead, headlines read that home values were up in the United States, citing annualized data.

Unfortunately for active home buyers and sellers, year-over-year data isn’t all that helpful when making a real estate decisions. It’s the month-to-month data that matters. Month-to-month changes in home prices are what defines a housing market. Month-to-month is what sets the tone for contracts and negotiations on a purchase.

The rosier, annualized data published this past week just doesn’t capture the reality of what was the February 2010 market.  And even then, the data is somewhat useless because it’s from February and May will be upon us next week.

Case-Shiller is on a 2-month lag — hardly reflective of the “right now” of real estate in Blue Ridge.

When you’re looking for real estate data that actionable, consider using sources that are more “real-time”. A real estate agent may be the right place to start.  Because for all the data that Case-Shiller and the other housing indices collect, it can never be as relevant to your individual needs as a well-executed, timely market analysis.

It appears that there is some positive news coming out of Fannin County, at least compared to the previous months. Vacant Lots For Sale in Blue Ridge, GA. is up 83% from March 2009. The Median Sales Price has risen %2,500, or 4% to $61,000 compared to $58,500 from a year ago. This is due in part to the Average Median For Sale Price coming down almost $10,000 for a 14% change from March 2009.

April is promising to be a fantastic month as the number of Vacant Lots Under Contract in Fannin County is up an amazing 180%.  Although that is only a change of 9, up to 14 from 5, but it is still great news for North Georgia Mountain developments that have been sitting idle for for the most part experiencing very few sales. Many of our Mountain Communities are not doing well at all, and several of our developers are struggling to keep their investments out of Foreclosure. Many are realizing  with the massive reductions in Property Values due to the Real Estate and Mortgage Crisis, the carrying costs added to the initial investments of these developments far exceed the 5 to 10 year projections of Market Value. This makes it very tough for them to hang on, both mentally and physically.

However Inventory is coming down shedding some more good news. The number of New Properties that have entered the market is down 29%, and the number of Total Vacant Lots For Sale In Blue Ridge Georgia is down 26%. The Average Days on Market (DOM) shot up a little in March, up 31% to 231 Days. This is the average time it takes a Real Estate Professional to Market and and Sell a Vacant Lot in Fannin County. AS you might have guessed, with the decrease in the amount of Properties For Sale in Blue Ridge, GA. and a slight increase in sales, the Month Supply of Inventory is also way down, 74.5% to only 72 months.

If you have any questions or concerns, or if you would like any additional information that I have not provided in this Real Estate Market Report, please Contact Me or give me a call at 706.994.8686. I appreciate you stopping by “The Porch,” and please know that you are welcome back anytime.

Make it a GREAT weekend!