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After a down month in May, the sales of newly-built homes appears back on track.
As published by the Census Bureau, June’s New Home Sales report showed:
- A 24 percent sales volume increase from the month prior
- A 2-month drop in the supply of newly-built home
There are now just 210,000 new homes for sale nationwide.
June’s data is a major improvement over May, but it’s possible that the true “new home market” may be softer than the statistics suggest. This is for several reasons.
First, we’re comparing June’s sales data to the worst month in New Home Sales history.
In May, sales of new homes totaled just 267,000 units nationwide. That’s one-quarter fewer sales than in the previous worst month in New Home Sales history. May’s sales levels were awful by any measure but June’s improvement to 330,000 units remains second-worst sales levels ever posted.
Second, although much improved, June’s new home supply of 7.6 months is elevated versus the historical norm near 6.0 months. The last year has averaged 7.7 months.
For buyers of new homes in Blairsville and Blue Ridge, this combination of low sales volume and higher-than-normal inventory may be a positive. It’s the main reason why home builder confidence is reeling and the downturn has opened some doors for big discounts and deals. Free upgrades and closing cost credits can make a well-priced home even more attractive.
Data compiled through the Northeast Georgia MLS shows the following:
New Homes For Sale In The North Georgia Mountains
- Towns County (Hiawassee, GA.) – 37
- Union County (Blairsville, GA.) – 50
- Fannin County (Blue Ridge, GA.) – 98
- Gilmer County (Ellijay, GA.) – 56
New Homes Sold Year-To-Date In The North Georgia Mountains
- Towns County (Hiawassee, GA.) – 11
- Union County (Blairsville, GA.) – 23
- Fannin County (Blue Ridge, GA.) – 28
- Gilmer County (Ellijay, GA.) – 18
Plus, with mortgage rates at all-time lows and expected to rise, home affordability is may never be better.
If I can assist you with your North Georgia Mountain Real Estate needs, please Contact Me, or pick up the phone and give me a call at 706.994.8686. I sure would appreciate the opportunity to help you find your piece of Heaven here in our Mountains!
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Home values rose in March, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s most recent Home Price Index. Values were reported higher by 0.3 percent, on average, from February.
We use the phrase “on average” because the Home Price Index is broad-reaching, national housing statistic. It ignores the dynamics of neighborhood real estate markets such as The North Georgia Mountains as well as citywide markets like Ellijay, Blue Ridge, and Blairsville too.
Instead, the Home Price Index focuses on state and regional statistics.
For example, in March 2010 as compared to February:
- Values in the East South Central region rose 2.5%
- Values in the Mountain states rose 1.1%
- Values in the Middle Atlantic states fell 1.0%
Of course, none of this data is especially helpful for today’s home buyers and sellers.
Real estate is a local phenomenon that can’t be summarized by state or region. What matters most to buyers and sellers is the economics of a neighborhood and that level of granularity can’t be served up by a national housing report like the Home Price Index.
The Home Price Index data is additionally unhelpful to buyers and sellers in that it reports on a 2-month delay.
In other words, Home Price Index is not even a fair reflection of today’s market — it highlights the real estate market as it existed 60 days ago.
So why is the Home Price Index even published? Because government, business and banks rely on the reports. As a national indicator, the Home Price Index helps governments make policy, businesses make decisions, and banks make guidelines. This, in turn, trickles down to Main Street where it impacts every one of us — and eventually influences real estate.
Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.44 percent.
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The sales of newly-built homes soared in March. Even more than what was expected. But the news may not be as glowing as what the media is telling us.
Take a look at the headlines from last Friday:
- Sales of new homes rocketed up 27 percent in March (WaPo)
- New-home sales rise fastest in 47 years (CNNMoney)
- Sales of New Homes Climb by Most Since 1963 (Business Week)
None of these statements is false, per se, but each is somewhat misleading. The biggest reason why March’s New Home Sales was even able to rise 27 percent is because data from the month before it — February — was the worst in New Home Sales history.
In February, new homes sold posted its lowest level in recorded history.
A better comparison would be against March a year earlier; or October 2009, the month before the home buyer tax credit’s initial expiration date.
Against both of those time periods, March 2010 fared well.
Home buyers – first-timers and repeats alike — went under contract last month, taking advantage of the soon-to-expire federal home buyer tax credit program. The credit gives up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and up to $6,500 for repeat ones.
Buyers must be in mutual contract on or before April 30, 2010 to be eligible for the credit, and must closed on or before June 30, 2010.
The New Home Sales data included other strong housing data, too. The current supply of new homes nationwide is at a multi-year low. Along with stronger home demand, this should push Ellijay, Blue Ridge and Blairsville home prices higher throughout the coming months.
It’s no wonder builders are bullish on the economy.
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More than 60 percent of U.S. homes are “over-assessed”, says an industry trade group. Homeowners in Blue Ridge, Blairsville, Ellijay and Hiawassee pay more in property taxes than they otherwise should have to. You might be one of them.
Have you considered fighting your real estate tax bill?
In this 4-minute piece from The Today Show, you’ll learn:
- When to file your tax bill dispute for the best chances of winning
- How to pull your “property card” and check for tax bill-raising errors
- What to do if the taxing authority turns down your request
Most importantly, you’ll learn that don’t need to hire an attorney to fight your tax bill. You just need to be prepared. Do your research and make your case. It’s estimated that nearly half of all contesting homeowners are successful.
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Mortgage markets improved yesterday after the Federal Reserve released its March 16, 2010 meeting minutes. It’s good news for Blue Ridge, Blairsville and Ellijay home buyers and rate shoppers — rates could have just as easily gone the other way.
The Fed Minutes is a detailed recap of the debate and discussion that shapes the nation’s monetary policy. The notes are dense; it takes 3 weeks to compile them for publication.
As compared to the more well-known, post-meeting press release, the Fed Minutes are extremely lengthy. For example:
- March 16 press release : 451 words
- March 16 meeting minutes : 6,152 words
If the press release is the executive summary, the Fed Minutes are the novel.
The extra words matter.The minutes recount what the Fed did, how the Fed did it, and what the Fed plans to do next. And, in the minutes, Wall Street looks for clues.
This is why the report is important to every rate shopper in the country.
When the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes from its meetings, it leave clues about the groups next policy-making steps. For example, in March’s Fed Minutes, it’s clear that the Fed’s concern about inflation is hugely diminished and that’s a major plus for the mortgage bond market.
Inflation causes mortgage rates to rise. The absence of inflation, therefore, helps them to fall. This improves home affordability, among other things.
Similarly, the Fed Minutes note that real estate sales may have been worse throughout the winter months if not for low mortgage rates and the sense among Americans that home prices were troughing. We may infer, therefore, that rising rates may suppress home sales later this year.
Markets are always looking for clues from inside the Fed and the last meeting’s minute signal that the economy is on its way up. If you’re looking for a bargain in the housing market, your window to act may be closing.
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2010 Southern Appalachian Artist Guild Exhibit – “Out Of The Woods”
When: April 9th Through April 30th, 2010
Where: Gilmer Arts and Heritage Association
The Southern Appalachian Artist Guild has been invited to exhibit their work at the Gilmer Arts & Heritage Association from April 9th through April 30th. A reception will be held on April 9th from 5:00 p.m. until 7:00 p.m. Join us to support our local artists.
Sponsored By:
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Three more Georgia community banks failed today, two of which were right here at home. Appalachian Community Bank of Ellijay will reopen on Saturday as branches of Community & Southern Bank, while Bank of Hiawassee, which also had branches known as Bank of Blue Ridge and Bank of Blairsville, will reopen as Citizens South Bank. In small communities it seems everyone knows everything, and that unfortunately held true today. It had been a rumor from the beginning of the week that this Friday was in fact Seizure Day here at home, and that rumor turned out to be true.
What impact will that have here in the North Georgia Mountains? Well, that is a question that only time will tell. To say the least it is a concern of mine. How will they handle bad loans, and folks who are struggling and in danger of losing th
eir homes, their family farms, and even their businesses? How will it affect the overall Real Estate Market? Will it even change at all? And what about the employees that have been working for many, many years with these banks, will they keep their jobs? These and many others are questions that we would all love to have the answers to, and I am sure we will in due time.
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Single-family Housing Starts idled last month, dropping just 3,000 units from the month prior, or 0.2%.
According to the Commerce Department’s report, February marked the 8th straight month in which Housing Starts straddled the half-million marker, dating back to June 2009.
This is a different slant on the Housing Starts story as told by the press.
Most publications are reporting that Housing Starts fell 5.9 percent in February. Technically, this is true. Housing Starts did fall 5.9 percent last month. However, the Housing Starts data is comprised of three parts:
1. Single-Family Housing Starts
2. 2-4 Unit Housing Starts
3. “Apartment Building” Housing Starts (i.e. 5 or more units)
The press tends to lump all 3 together but that’s not relevant for everyday homeowners and buyers.
2-4 unit homes, and apartments and condos are a different housing class as compared to single-family homes and are notoriously volatile, too. Single-family starts are more steady and better reflect the country’s housing stock.
Single-family housing starts are up 32 percent over the last 12 months.
Meanwhile, the pace of new buyers has not kept up with the pace of new housing stock. Therefore, because home prices are based on supply-and-demand, the price for a newly-built home was down, on average, 7 percent nationwide in January.
With the federal home buyer tax credit expiring soon, home buyers in Blairsville, Blue Ridge and Ellijay will likely create new demand for homes. And with Housing Starts holding steady near 500,000, that should push prices higher through the spring months.
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Like real estate, it appears that foreclosure activity is a local phenomenon, too.
As reported by RealtyTrac.com, more than half of all foreclosure-related activity in 2009 came from just 4 states:
1. California
2. Florida
3. Arizona
4. Illinois
More than 1.4 million filings made in 2009 are attributed to the above states. Furthermore, each ranks in the Top 10 for 2009 Foreclosures Per Capita.
The other states are Nevada, Utah, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan and Colorado.
Versus 2008, foreclosures are up 21 percent nationwide and that’s a big number, but a deeper look at RealtyTrac’s annual reports reveals a more positive undertone on the housing market.
1. 40 states fell below the national Foreclosures Per Capita average in 2009
2. Foreclosure activity fell on an annual basis in 10 states as compared to 2008
Foreclosures are still prevalent, though, and buying homes in foreclosure in Blairsville, Blue Ridge, and Ellijay Georgia continues to be big business. First-time buyers, move-up buyers, and real estate investors each are bidding aggressively.
Distressed homes account for one-third of home resale activity, according to an industry trade group.
That said, buying foreclosures can be tricky.
First, properties are often sold “as-is” and the cost of repairs may unwind the home’s status as a “value buy”. Furthermore, a lender may require specific fixes to be made prior to closing and that, too, costs money.
Second, buying a foreclosed home in Georgia isn’t as streamlined as buying a “normal” home. Closing on a foreclosure can be a 120-day process or longer. A 4-month time-frame may not fit your schedule.
And, third, finding foreclosures can be difficult. Despite the growth in foreclosure search engines, it still takes a good real estate agent to uncover the best homes at the best prices.
Read the complete foreclosure report and take a peek at RealtyTrac’s foreclosure heat maps. If you like what you see, Contact Me or give me a call at 706.994.8686.
There’s still good deals in the foreclosure market — you just have to know where to find them
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