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January 27th, 2010Categories: Mortgage & Finance reVIEWS

The Federal Open Market Committee ends a scheduled, 2-day meeting today in Washington. It’s the first of 8 scheduled meetings for the policy-setting group in 2010.

The group adjourns at 2:15 PM ET.

As is customary, upon adjournment, the Fed will issue a press release to the markets recapping its views of the country’s current economic condition, and the outlook for the near-term future.

The post-meeting statements from the Fed are brief but comprehensive. And Wall Street eats them up.  Every word, sentence and phrase is carefully dissected in the hope of gaining an investment edge over other active traders.

It’s for this reason that mortgage rates tend to be jittery on days the FOMC adjourns. Wall Street is frantically re-balancing its bets.

Today should be no different.

The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent — the lowest it’s been in history.  However, it’s what the Fed says Wednesday that will matter more than what it does.

After the Fed’s last meeting in December, it made several observations:

1. The jobs market is getting “less worse”
2. The housing sector is making improvements
3. Financial markets are stabilizing further

The economy is gradually improving, the Fed told us, but there are still risks to the economy ahead.  Furthermore, inflation remains in check.

As compared to December’s press release, today’s FOMC statement will be closely watched. If the Fed changes its verbiage in any way that alludes to strong growth and/or inflation in 2010, expect mortgage rates in Ellijay to rise as Wall Street moves its money from bonds to stocks.

Conversely, reference to slower growth in 2010 should lead rates lower.

We can’t know what the Fed will say so if you’re floating a mortgage rate right now or wondering whether the time is right to lock, the safe approach would be to lock prior to 2:15 PM ET Wednesday. After that, what happens to rates is anyone’s guess.

Tags: Add new tag, Economy, Federal funds rate, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve System, FOMC, Inflation, Mortgage, Mortgage Rates, Wall Street

Written by Chad Lariscy//Discussion: Please leave a comment.

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January 7th, 2010Categories: Mortgage & Finance reVIEWS

Both mortgage rates and home affordability took a turn for the better in Ellijay Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released its December 15-16, 2009 meeting minutes.

The Fed Minutes is a follow-up piece to the post-FOMC meeting press release. But whereas the press release is succinct and to-the-point, the minutes are lengthy and often meandering.

As a comparison, December’s press release contained 535 words. December’s minutes had 6,260.

But these “extra words” aren’t superfluous. They’re actually very important to homeowners. Because the Federal Reserve’s internal debates help to shape Wall Street expectations, it doesn’t take much for those conversations to have a trickle-down effect on Main Street.

For example, after the December meeting, the Fed said that economic growth is steady, inflation is in check, and an orderly wind-down of mortgage market support was underway. A look at the minutes, though, showed some disconnect.

Some Fed members believe rising commodity prices could lead to stronger-than-expected, and others think that improvement is housing could be “undercut” by a pull-back in government stimulus.

Overall, the Fed appears optimistic about the economy, but not as optimistic as on December 16. Mortgage markets responded favorably to the minutes and mortgage pricing improved.

Although rates remain higher as compared to early-December, pricing has been on a good run this week. If you’re under contract for a home in Georgia or just looking to refinance, now may be a good time to lock.

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Tags: Add new tag, Economic growth, Fed Minutes, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve System, FederalReserve, FOMC, Georgia, Inflation, Mortgage, Wall Street

Written by Chad Lariscy//Discussion: 1 Comment »

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November 4th, 2009Categories: Georgia Mountain Real Estate VIEWS, Mortgage & Finance reVIEWS

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy “has continued to pick up” since the September FOMC meeting and that housing market activity has increased.

It’s the third consecutive post-FOMC statement in which the Fed speaks optimistically about the U.S. economy – a signal that the recession is likely over.

The economy isn’t without threats, however, and the Fed identified several in its announcement, including:

1. Ongoing job losses for American workers
2. Reduced fixed investment by businesses
3. Ongoing challenges for the financial markets

The overall tone remained positive, however, as inflation appears to be held in check.

Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and to honor its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage bond market.

The Fed plans to wind down its mortgage market support over the next 5 months, reaffirming its March 2010 exit date.  For now, Fed support helps hold mortgage rates down.

Mortgage market reaction to the Fed’s press release is negative overall.  Mortgage rates are rising.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is December 15-16, 2009.

Tags: Business, Economy of the United States, Federal funds rate, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve System, Inflation, Mortgage, United States

Written by Chad Lariscy//Discussion: Please leave a comment.

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August 14th, 2009Categories: Georgia Mountain Real Estate VIEWS, Mortgage & Finance reVIEWS

 

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

It also reiterated plans to support the mortgage market to the tune of $1.5 trillion.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy is ”leveling off” and that financial markets continue to improve.

The change in verbiage is the rosiest from the Fed since the start of the recession and it may signal that the downturn’s end is near.

That said, the Fed highlighted lingering economic soft spots that could still impact a recovery through the end of 2009 and into 2010.

1. Ongoing job losses
2. Reduced “housing wealth”
3. Tight credit conditions

Furthermore, rising energy costs remain a threat to inflation.

 

Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and to honor its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage bond market.

Market reaction to the Fed’s press release is muted.  With no real change in message and a basic confirmation of what most investors already knew, Wall Street sees no reason to panic.  Mortgage rates are unchanged.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is September 22-23, 2009.

Tags: Business, Fed Funds Rate, Federal funds rate, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve System, Financial market, Inflation, Mortgage

Written by Chad Lariscy//Discussion: Please leave a comment.

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June 10th, 2009Categories: Georgia Mountain Home Buyer's reVIEWS, Georgia Mountain Real Estate VIEWS, Mortgage & Finance reVIEWS

 

Since Memorial Day, conforming mortgage rates have jumped by more than 1.125 percent, adding thousands of dollars to the annual cost of homeownership.

To the casual observer, the moves may seem random.  There’s a reason this is happening, however. 

It starts with inflation.

As an economic force, inflation erodes the value of the U.S. Dollar.  Left unchecked, it drives up the Cost of Living as each dollar “buys less” at the supermarket, gas station, or anywhere else.

But with respect to mortgage rates, inflation’s impact is more immediate.  Because inflation devalues the dollar over the long-term, it renders long-term mortgage bonds a less attractive investment for traders. 

If bond investors are repaid in U.S. Dollars, after all, it would make the investment worth less if the dollar is in an inflationary freefall. 

Therefore, in situations when inflation is likely to present, we find that traders often sell out of their mortgage bond positions which, in turn, drives down the bond prices.  Then, because bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, rising rates are the inevitable result.

Lately, Wall Street is fearing inflation for a number of reasons:

1.  Job losses are slowing, adding to consumer spending expectations

2.  Gas prices have risen 41 days in a row

3.  The federal government is increasing the money supply

These 3 factors — plus a few others — are all coming to a head around the same time and traders are getting defensive with their portfolios.  As a result, they’re selling their mortgage bond positions and it’s driving mortgage rates higher.

Rates may continue to trek toward 7 percent through July and August, or they may retreat toward 5 percent.  We can’t know for sure.  What we can know, though, is that volatility in rates should continue until the economic picture gets more clear. That could be next week, or next year.

For now, be ready to lock at a moment’s notice.  Mortgage rates are changing quickly.

Tags: Cost of Living, Home Loan, Inflation, Money supply, Mortgage, Real Estate, U.S. Dollar, United States, United States dollar, Wall Street

Written by Chad Lariscy//Discussion: Please leave a comment.

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